If you’ve been considering the Portuguese Golden Visa as your path to EU residency and citizenship, the coming weeks may be pivotal. With Portugal’s snap national election taking place on May 18th, the future of the Golden Visa program hangs in the balance.
In this article, we’ll break down:
✅ Why this election matters for Golden Visa investors
✅ What each major political party is proposing
✅ The likely scenarios after the election—and what they mean for you
Why the May 18 Election Matters
At the most basic level, the majority of American investor's wealth is tied up in US dollars - with a sizeable chunk in the US stock market. As 2025 evolves, de-risking Portugal’s Golden Visa has long been a popular route for investors seeking EU residency. But the political environment has shifted in recent years, with growing public pressure to prioritize affordable housing and regulate foreign investment.
In 2023, the Socialist government made a major change: ending the real estate route for Golden Visa applicants. Now, only certain fund investments, cultural contributions, or job-creation projects qualify.
Fast forward to 2025, and the future of the program could be reshaped again—depending on who wins this election.
Bottom line? The policies of the next government could decide whether the Golden Visa is tightened, transformed, or even phased out entirely.
What Are the Main Political Parties Saying?
✅ Democratic Alliance (center-right coalition)
The Democratic Alliance (AD), led by the Social Democratic Party (PSD), has traditionally been more supportive of the Golden Visa program. But even they are proposing tougher rules this time:
AD has also floated the idea of a “social investment visa”, allowing investors to gain residency by contributing to social projects like affordable housing or education initiatives, rather than investing in real estate.
👉 Key takeaway: Under AD, the Golden Visa would likely continue—but with stricter requirements for citizenship and a stronger focus on investments that deliver social or economic impact in Portugal.
❌ Socialist Party (center-left)
The Socialist Party (PS), which governed from 2015 to 2024, was behind the 2023 law that closed the real estate route. Their platform signals they may go even further:
👉 Key takeaway: Under PS, the Golden Visa could be fully abolished within a year, following the path of other EU countries like Spain that have recently scrapped similar programs.
What Are the Possible Outcomes?
Depending on the election results, three scenarios could unfold:
🟢 1. Program Continues, But with Stricter Rules
Most likely if AD forms the next government. You’d still be able to apply, but would need to:
- Spend more time in Portugal annually to maintain residency
- Wait longer before becoming eligible for citizenship
- Possibly invest in new approved sectors, like social impact projects
✅ If your goal is EU residency with a plan to spend more time in Portugal, this remains a strong path—but citizenship may take longer than 5 years.
🔴 2. Full Closure of the Program
Most likely if PS forms the next government (or if left-leaning parties have decisive influence). This would mean:
- No new Golden Visa applications allowed
- Existing holders likely protected and able to renew, but no new investors accepted
✅ If you haven’t yet applied, you may only have a short window before closure. Historically, Portugal provides advance notice of changes, but the opportunity may close in late 2025 or 2026.
🟡 3. Status Quo Continues (At Least for Now)
If the election results in a divided parliament, legislative changes may stall—leading to no immediate changes in 2025. The program would keep operating under current (post-2023) rules:
- No real estate route
- Investment allowed through funds, cultural contributions, or job creation
✅ This scenario would buy more time—but with political pressure building, changes may still arrive later in the government’s term.
What Are the Possible Outcomes?
Whichever path Portugal takes, one thing is clear:
👉 Current Golden Visa holders and pending applicants are highly likely to be protected.
Portugal has a strong track record of grandfathering in existing investors when changing laws. In past reforms, anyone who had already applied was allowed to proceed under the rules in effect at the time of their application.
That means if you apply before any new law is announced, you’d almost certainly lock in today’s terms—regardless of future changes.
Should You Apply Now?
If an EU passport is an important goal, and you’re eligible to invest now, this election creates a clear urgency:
✅ Apply now to secure your place under current rules
✅ Avoid future requirements that may involve more time in Portugal or a longer path to citizenship
✅ Benefit from Portugal’s predictable transition approach (grandfathering)
In uncertain times, acting early can provide clarity and peace of mind.
At Pela Terra, we’re here to guide you through the process with transparency and care.
👉 Book a free consultation with our team today to explore your options and get answers to your questions.
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